Nice post.

Certification will eventually achieve critical mass. Not sure if the certification body wave will last very long.

As external certification bodies gain acceptance alternate forms to classroom teaching grab a share of the markets.Extra pressure on universities hurt them. The university reputations go down hill. Enrolment declines and reputation gets even worse. Certification gains in value.

The value of a diploma to employers is highly psychological. Once people start questioning the value of diplomas the system can fall very quickly. Many of us don't really give a hoot about what paper someone has. And in the work I currently do the diploma has no relevance.

I think that the certification wave will become predominant for a few years and then it will be replaced by a more "Network/Web" way of aknowledging competency.

Certification/Assessment done in a social networking context seems to be a natural extension to changes we have seen in other places. The technologies to support this aren't quite there but they are very close.

In a world where you buy expensive items on Ebay, where you find a mate on PlentyOfFish why could you certainly figure out a way to assess competencies without depending on a diploma from one network instance.

I think it is time to let the "Network" do its thing.

Gilbert