Oh great! I was rabbiting on about complex and complicated yesterday as well! It does seem to be a key idea in work psychology that unlocks a lot of well, complication!

I like your definitions and the point toward a solution. Shirky is a sociologist though. So he isn't looking at what an organization could do (we are drawn to complex because we deal with emergent actions).

He is talking about what society is likely to do. He should make suggestions at a policy level but he is making the point that some societies go into grid lock. At the point we have a catastrophic change (in phase state). It is emergent all right, but with consequences that destroy what we once took to be a good system.

I have seen this happen at close quarters and wish I had read the book he quotes 20 years ago as I watched a collapse scenario unfold. I knew exactly what was happening and lived through the frustration of grid-lock. In the end the collapse happens because we can't make the small changes that would unlock our ability to act.

Hmm, looking at your definitions again, I would have though that complicated usually implies not having the right feedback. It is when there is feedforward (arbitrary procedures usually), little or distracting concurrent feedback, and feedback that might suggest feed forward was arbitrary.

Complex means bringing responding to several concurrent feedback streams where action on one stream can affect another. We enjoy that because we are getting feedback immediately and are dancing with the situation. (Too many jobs aren't sufficiently complex and we get bored.)

The first disrupts the tracking task and the second aids it.

Isn't your complicated a diagnostic task which can be highly paid because it is difficult (e.g., investigating an air traffic accident.) Landing a plane is complex. Dealing with disgruntled customers at a restaurant is disruptive for the waiter but diagnostic for the owner. Matching the task to the rhythm changes its status.

A creative task such as good negotiation is different again and is like your complex task. We have at least one feedback stream that is aesthetic/holistic. As we see a pattern emerge, we try to support it (we could over egg it too.) When this is a social task, involving many people is the goal.

A thought.

I like where you are going with Shirky's idea - at the company level. I am still curious about the possibility of a global collapse.