Hi Harold,
First, thank you for the links to my sites. I tend to disagree that training departments will shrink for a few reasons:

1. Manufacturing – While the number of manufacturing jobs has deceased, we still remain one of the largest manufacturing countries in the world. This is mainly due to our efficiency, such as better processes and technology. While it is hard to compete with some goods, such as blue jeans, TVs, etc.; we remain strong with more complex goods, such as planes and automobiles.

This increased efficiency leads to more manufacturing, for example, both Intel and AMD are building new plants in the U. S. Another example is Boeing tried outsourcing many of the parts for its new Dreamliner that would have traditionally been built in the U.S. It is now scaling back on outsourcing because as it discovered, project teams are not easily interchangeable in manufacturing complex products.

As other countries increase their standard of living, they of course have to pay their workers better, thus the huge advantage they have lessens.

Thus, manufacturing jobs will rise, perhaps not to the level it was in the past, but it will certainly rise.

2. Our service economy is growing – And just like manufacturing, this sector of the economy relies on processes and technology, which means training. I worked at one of Starbucks’ roasting and distribution plants for a number of years. As they grew, competitors arose and of course we had to learn new ways to remain competitive, which meant new processes and technology, which of course has to be trained. Since they operate retail stores, this part of the company also has to be trained and retrained when new products come out.

3. Formal learning and informal learning rely on each other – Estimates show that each hour of formal learning spills over to four hours of informal learning (Bell, J., and Dale, M. (1999) Informal Learning in the Workplace. Department for Education and Employment Research Report No. 134. London, England: Department for Education and Employment, August 1999.)

When informal learning leads to better processes and technology, they are often adapted by the organization, which means training people formally what was discovered informally.

This has interlocking consequences. For example, I train organizations on how to conduct AARs (After Action Reviews). The people then take what they learned formally and use it to learn things informally, which then at times have to be trained formally to others!

Training Departments will certainly change (after all, they also learn and grow), but I for one do don’t see them shrinking.