Very thought provoking. Thanks.

I'm also wondering how much plausibility patterns (e.g. Polya patterns) are actually in play rather than true "knowledge". It may be that in many cases there are many different solutions and experts become expert in articulating plausible and convincing rationalisations to make their unconscious learnings concrete and intelligible.

When success follows then attribution error mistakenly concludes
a) The expert knew the answer
and b) There is a single way that works.

We get caught up in telling ourselves "rational lies" about why we got the results we did (a "rational-lies-ation") while the true answer remains a mystery.