I’m finding it difficult to write here these days. And I have written a fair bit as this is post #3,685. Given the turmoil with our American neighbours it’s hard to focus on much else. Just in my professional networks on both sides of the border I personally know people who have lost their jobs, their clients, and any ability to plan for the near future — all in the past month.
I should be writing a book. I even have a publisher. But I won’t. At least not at this time. Most of my thinking time is focused on the aggressive behaviour of our once-ally, the United States, and the continuous threats to our sovereignty. The fact that Trump was re-elected still shocks me. It shows how flawed the US electoral system is, and I know that we have enough of our own flaws here in Canada. I spent most of my initial career as an Infantry officer, training to fight the Soviet Union and its Warsaw Pact allies. It seems that my later years in life may be fighting, at least economically, the Russian regime and the American administration that supports it.
One of my professional areas of interest is sensemaking, individually and collectively. It is the focus of my PKM workshop which is currently in its second week with a global cohort. It’s nice to at least have something to focus on that is not political. With PKM I promote the use of the Cynefin framework and have focused on dealing with complexity and how to operate with a Probe > Sense > Respond approach. Our current state of national and international affairs has shifted into the Chaotic domain which requires more of an Act > Sense > Respond approach. Act first, and then see what happens to make sense of it. When I get up in the morning these days I pretty well start in a confused state.
So I’m asking myself and any interested readers — what changes in our sensemaking practices should we incorporate to adapt to a world that is often more chaotic than complex?
Next: a new understanding of my confusion
In the center of your CYNEFIN diagram is an area noted as “confused.” As a former US naval officer and educator, that is my area in recent days. it is hard to consider sensemaking when nothing now makes sense!
I’ve always been somewhat confused, Britt, but it now seems to be a permanent state!
Well, I just blogged about this. Its a kind of pre-sense making move, but the escape from confusion is the most important skill right now and is actually the essence of the Cynefin framework: https://www.chriscorrigan.com/parkinglot/escaping-confusion/
I’ve also been working with a client and a partner to write a handy guide to leading in crisis…it’s a work in progress and we are doing some workshop and narrative capture to flesh it out, but one of the exercises we have been doing is asking people to put stories on a landscape diagram defined by two axes: level of coherence about the situation (1=everyone has a different interpretation of what is going on; 10=everyone knows exactly what is happening, and they all agree) and, the level of control you have (1=I have no control at all; 10=the answer is completely in my control).
That scheme helps us to classify the different kinds of responses to chaos. It’s not yet in this guide, but likely will be in the next iteration: https://docs.google.com/document/d/14QXpSpyP1CmhCdvHmVyUNrgd_d-RfWpGPtxra-JH9t4/edit?tab=t.0#heading=h.68bpdtvvw5w
Thanks, Chris. I look forward to delving into this.
The universe itself is complex. But as the rate of change in a given region speeds up or slows down, relative to the human individual and collective to adapt, it may appear more chaotic or more stable/clear.
The chaos-order of the environment is mostly relevant to one thing: the ability to make reliable predictions, and, thus, decisions about how to acquire what we need to survive (and increase our future odds of continued survival).
A highly stable environment suggests that we don’t need to store up resources: we can always acquire more from the energy and material flows around us. Chaos means we have to increase our stores, creating our own island of stability.
Individually, this is a fragile strategy. The more people we can collaborate with, the more stability we can create. But what we are seeing now is the opposite fragility. It comes from collaborating with too many people—including some with hostile beliefs, values, and goals—using too-rigid systems. We have been cooperating with bad actors, who have revealed themselves. We have been complacent, and assumed that the market (and international law) is powerful enough to reign in everyone. Oops!
Many of these defectors are American, but some are Canadian (or others).
We must separate fact from fiction. There are a lot of fictions, and some are quite toxic. But what matters is what are opponents believe, and what they might do. America (or a certain strain) has always been a danger. They are paranoid. They seem to have run out of enemies, and have decided to cast former allies in that role.
Can we talk them down? We must assess their commitment to this change of attitude. Can we assist the level-headed among them to wake up and take action, before it is too late? Or are we doomed to be a vassal territory, with reduced sovereignty and our wealth stolen from us? We’ve been the subject of soft colonization for decades. Now it is turning harder. Perhaps we will learn first-hand the experience of the First Nations people, and others who have been bulldozed by imperialism.
We need to make friends elsewhere. Europe may be the last hope. But maybe America simply has a sort of fever. Maybe it will pass.
Thank you. Good points. I read this today and it makes a lot of sense though it doesn’t seem to give me many options. I do hope the fever passes.
https://thewalrus.ca/why-wont-trump-shut-up-about-canada/
Life is a landscape. We need to reconnoiter, navigate, and traverse. Different terrain require different skills and techniques. What is best for chaotic terrain? Can we find a way through?
The terrain is not only chaotic, but it is changing under our feet. Is it an earthquake? A lava flow? A monsoon? Flood? Tsunami? The faster the landscape changes, the harder it will be to adapt. What tools can help us?
How did the Ukrainians adapt? The Palestinians? I think we are in better shape, having more land, more resources, and an enemy who is not so unified.
We can always do something. There is always work to do. I think we need to form support networks. We need leaders and organizers. We need to analyze which our of existing support systems are the most vulnerable, and find way to shore them up. A strategic stockpile? Emergency communications networks? Low-tech solutions?
Shall we put pressure on the wealthy and corporations, who have taken too much, and given too little back? Taxes or whatever. Kick out the American infiltrators eroding our economic sovereignty? Expose the defectors who are undermining us? Game plan the next two to four years? What will the Americans do? Worst case scenario? We need to prepare.
Most of this seems like work for government agencies. But we need a Civil Defence Force. We should tell government that they need to make that happen. Other countries have done so. It’s nation-building.
I think the results of our upcoming federal election will decide how we collectively act.
Hey Harold. For myself, I’ve been going through a dramatic transition the last five years or so, one that has me exploring within myself at a deeper and deeper level. In doing so, I’ve been striving to let go and unlearn my existing assumptions and beliefs that encapsulate my previous worldview. Think of this transition like shifting from a solid to a fluid, so as to allow your “self” to expand, thus expanding your worldview in turn.
Needless to say this can feel like a very unsettlingly experience at first, as you’re letting go of the “container” of your “self” and diving deeper within an ocean of possibilities and potential within yourself. In doing so, you begin to let go of beliefs that previously were hard coded within you because often these beliefs are the very thing limiting your own growth and development. In other words, often your internal concept of your “self” is often standing in your own way, blocking you from naturally spilling forth into a larger Self.
To make this a bit more concrete, think of your relationship to concepts and beliefs and how you perceive these as right or wrong which often are tied to their meaning. For example, for most people uncertainty or even change are considered bad things, so they’re avoided. But when you learn to step beyond that old meaning, uncertainty can be perceived as something good, where unexpected opportunities can emergently appear when you least expect them to.
For example, back in 2001, my life was completely turned upside down when the dot-com bubble burst and I felt it was horrible and unjust in the moment. Afterwards the growth that arose out of that event began to transform me (and still is), so I’m glad it happened even though it was tough and is still challenging. In other words, I may not be more “happier” at the moment in my life but it is filled brimming with rich meaning, much more so than ever before.
In terms of right now, for a lot of people, what Trump is doing is obviously hurting a lot of people. But from my newer perspective, I think it is what is needed to happen for people to truly see him as he is, not just as they might believe he is (ie Republican’s positive illusionary belief of him). So yes, it’s horrible what’s happening but the opportunity emerging in the pain and suffering is people (many of those who voted for him) waking up to who he really is versus just continually seeing the mask he is wearing.
In effect, often true growth and development doesn’t occur without some form of pain and suffering because its needed to wake a person up, slow them down, and help them perceive and see things that they were blind to before. Something that I think needs to happen (ie an awakening) in not just American but in many places around the world, Canada included.
PS. Check out triple-loop learning as this relates to what I’m talking about, as I believe you’re familiar with double-loop learning already.
Nice to hear from you again, Nollind, and thanks for your considered comment. A good reminder about triple-loop learning as well.
https://www.sfu.ca/complex-systems-frameworks/frameworks/strategies/triple-loop-learning.html
I’d also highly recommend the following paper below on triple-loop learning, as it really gets to the depth of it, at least from my perspective and experiences in struggling to embodying triple-loop learning in my own life (especially within the context of what’s described within section 2.1 of the paper).
Triple-Loop Learning as Foundation for Profound Change, Individual Cultivation, and Radical Innovation
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/9940/
Harold. Thank you for starting the conversation. Like you, I don’t know where to start….
But I can commit to try to keep the dialogue going as we look for the cracks.
I think that is only what any of us can do, Shaun.
I love the center of the Cynefin framework!
But the center of the more recent iteration where the center is split bewteen the Confusion and the other more advanced or enlightened stage : aporia!
This the stage where you are confused
But you are aware of your confusion!
Thus on the verge of enlightenment!!!
I call this my aporetic meditation phase. Everything is open and full of potential!
He is quick, thinking in clear images;
I am slow, thinking in broken images.
He becomes dull, trusting to his clear images;
I become sharp, mistrusting my broken images.
Trusting his images, he assumes their relevance;
Mistrusting my images, I question their relevance.
Assuming their relevance, he assumes the fact;
Questioning their relevance, I question the fact.
When the fact fails him, he questions his senses;
When the fact fails me, I approve my senses.
He continues quick and dull in his clear images;
I continue slow and sharp in my broken images.
He in a new confusion of his understanding;
I in a new understanding of my confusion.
—Robert Graves (1885) In Broken Images
poetically said …yep! Thanks
Love this Harold.
This discussion really resonates, Harold, especially the shift from Probe > Sense > Respond to Act > Sense > Respond. But as I’ve been sitting with the experience of this moment, I’ve started to notice a gap in how we’re trying to address it. So much of our focus is on intellectual sensemaking, but what people are actually experiencing is visceral—disorientation, exhaustion, and the feeling that the ground is shifting beneath their feet.
Lately, I’ve been thinking more about how we actually navigate when things feel unstable—not just how we make sense of chaos, but how we move inside it. What I’m working on is less about creating frameworks and more about developing tools that help people orient in real time. When we don’t know what’s next, how do we steady ourselves? When things keep unraveling, how do we find our footing? When certainty is gone, what do we move toward instead?
One of the things I’ve been considering is that, just like in our personal lives, there are seasons in our collective experience. We often expect things to remain stable, or to always move toward growth and expansion, but history shows us that we go through cycles—periods of contraction, upheaval, and deep uncertainty. If we are in one of those seasons now, then the question shifts from ‘How do we make sense of this?’ to ‘How do we work with the energy of this time, rather than fighting against it?”
I think there is much that we have not reckoned with in terms of unprocessed grief and confusion that impacts our ability to “make sense” of things, as well as a need to attune to what it is we actually want. I think we’re thinking about how to fight back, but may not be as in touch with what we want to fight for.
And sensemaking in chaotic times isn’t just about thinking differently. It’s about moving differently—learning how to orient when the ground keeps shifting, how to keep going when there’s no clear map, and how to hold confusion without collapsing into fear or false certainty. I’ve begun calling this process Wayfinding—the practice of learning how to move through uncertainty when guarantees are gone and stable ground is nowhere to be found. Wayfinding isn’t about fixing chaos or forcing clarity; it’s about developing a new relationship with the unknown. The question isn’t just ‘how do we make sense of this?’ but ‘how do we live inside it?” I see this as personal practice that may then allow us to participate more effectively in the organizational and collective practices we may be trying to implement.
In this moment, I don’t think we just need better sensemaking models. I think we need a different way of relating to uncertainty itself. If we accept that we are in a time of ongoing disruption, then our task is not to find the perfect answer—but to learn how to navigate, how to adjust, and how to remain steady even when everything feels in flux.
I also believe that there are emotional and experiential things to tend to that we may not be adequately addressing when we’re focused on “making sense” of things. That’s the space I’m exploring—what it means to orient ourselves in the midst of shifting terrain, rather than just analyzing the landscape. And how do we tend to the emotional aspects of disorientation and overwhelm that may constrict our sense of the possible and leave us feeling both hopeless and helpless?
Great to hear from you, Michele! I like the idea of wayfinding instead of sensemaking. It reminds me that in unexplored territory a compass is more important than a map. I think we will all have to get used to a sense of disorientation for the time being.
Yes! I love the idea of the compass instead of the map. I’ve been re-reading Rebecca Solnitt’s A Field Guide to Getting Lost and it’s reminding me that our work right now is partly about being lost well. We are in unexplored territory in many ways so how can we navigate it with the knowledge that we are lost but there are still things we can turn to that can guide us.
Wayfinding has meaning in indigenous knowledge.
“Wayfinding Leadership: Groundbreaking Wisdom for Developing Leaders” by New Zealanders’ Chellie Spiller, Hoturoa Barclay-Kerr, and John Panoho introduces the concept of wayfinding as a leadership framework. It supports what you say above.
The framework is rooted in the traditional navigation techniques and wisdom of the indigenous Māori and Polynesian peoples.
Whilst I prefer the term “model” over “mindset” – one key idea I like from the book is the description of a “wayfinding mindset,” which encourages leaders to draw on their inner resources and ancestral wisdom to navigate through complex and uncertain situations.
This mindset entails being adaptable, resilient, and connected to one’s purpose and the environment.
Wayfinding leaders are skilled at reading and interpreting signs in their surroundings, trusting their intuition, and making decisions based on both rational analysis and inner guidance.
The book gives some practical insights about adopting the wayfinding mindset to develop the ability to lead their teams and organizations through uncharted territory and towards a successful future. Chellie’s research needs a wider audience
Thanks for the book recommendation, Shaun. It’s now on my list! I agree that it’s a mindset and I think it’s one that we are mostly conditioned out of as we adapt to our culture. I think children are naturals at wayfinding in many ways but we teach them not to do that. I look forward to reading the book!
I’ve started public protesting again (as I did during the previous conservative administration a couple of times). I’ve been signing petitions, but two weeks ago I attended the Stand Up For Science rally (as I must). This past weekend I joined the crowds outside Tesla at the designated time, and held up a small sign. I guess I’m acting (sense/respond), to show that we’re not lying down to accept this (despite some cowardly senators). As I told someone who liked my sign: “my Dad fought Nazis, and I’m going to do the same”. We’ll see what emerges, but I’m heartened by the courts and the town halls, just as I’m dismayed by too much cooperation/confusion/concession. Know that many of us Americans hate what the administration is doing in so many ways; internally (DOGE/cuts), and then externally, including Canada, Greenland, Panama, Israel/Gaza, and the Ukraine. Of course, I fear it will get worse before it gets better.
Blogging is not dead if thoughts such as these lead to good comments such as these!
Thanks Harold, it’s been a while since I caught up on your posts so I’m sitting here eating breakfast, reading your posts and waiting for the wash cycle to finish up. These days the mundane aspect of our day to day lives are the sanest (and most welcome) in this crazy world.
I’ve done a lot of reflecting over these last few years off social media and using my own PKM sensemaking to read and keep up to date with relevant news sources and people. However it’s hard – and getting harder – to do this. I’m now thinking that I need to further hone my search skills to only read things that are before 2023 or earlier – back when there was less AI generated articles. My current project is to remove, one by one, all the 1498 posts I’ve written on my blog and close it down. I’m copying and pasting each one to be made into annual volumes of physical books for my own shelf and enjoyment. That’ll happen in the next few months.
Who would have thought that this would happen?!
The world has changed and I can’t make sense of it anymore simply because it’s changing too much too quickly and we don’t know what’s fake or real. Also I’m in a better clearer calmer headspace to not worry about this all and in my own way, do small acts of resistance in my every day.
My own thoughts? I believe the world needs the skills we had been espousing years back now more than ever. Agency, PKM, community, critical thinking, imagination….but we have to contend with bigger players, capitalistic geed, rogue tech bros, corrupt governments, surveillance….they’re huge. No wonder we feel at a loss and feeling like you do.
(Write that book! Get it on physical paper!!)
Yes Harold. Write the book
Damn! Two of my favourite people have told me what to do. I guess I better get my sh*t together.
Yes.