Look Forward

I’ve been at a few conferences and meetings lately and some of the discussion has been around innovation and making Atlantic Canada more productive. Much of what I heard centered around yesterday’s problems. One theme was “how can we create more knowledge jobs”, especially in the e-learning sector. I find this backward-looking because I agree with Dan Pink’s premise that the major factors influencing North American work in the next few years can be put into the context of three questions:

  1. Can someone overseas do it cheaper?
  2. Can a computer do it faster?
  3. Am I offering something that satisfies the nonmaterial, transcendent desires of an abundant age?

Pink says that we are moving from the Information Age to the Conceptual Age, and I see this very clearly. In the e-learning marketplace more and more is being outsourced to excellent companies in Asia. We cannot work cheaper than these companies and we should not try. However, most of the jobs that I see being created are in the area of e-learning content production. When it comes to services, such as e-learning development, the value is higher up the stack. High value services are based on unstructured problem solving, while lower valued services are rules based or even modular. When services are commoditized then competition is based on price and Asia will win over North America (so get used to it). Since services are constantly being commoditized, the aim should be to stay ahead of the pack and higher up the stack. We already see this happening with software development.

Therefore, I don’t believe that the e-learning courseware development model will last very long before companies shift production overseas. I doubt that the intructional designer hiring boomlet in New Brunswick will last for long, unless production moves up the stack. This will take Conceptual Age skills.

There are some companies that are focused more on creativity (right brain stuff) and I would bet that these business models will last longer. One of these companies is FatKat Animation in Miramichi. We need to foster more of these creative companies, the schools that help to educate them like NBCCD and more breeding grounds for future artists. This does not mean that we should abandon the digital economy, only that we have to become the creative and conceptual leaders in the world economy or we’ll wind up with a future generation of digital gas jockeys.

This is old stuff in terms of ideas, but I’m getting scared that our government and industry leaders are still too focused on the Information Age and don’t see the upheaval coming with the Conceptual Age. Once more Marshall McLuhan was correct when he said that, “We look at the present through a rear-view mirror. We march backwards into the future.”

Small Scale Intelligence Collection, Collation and Dissemination

At yesterday’s breakfast meeting in Fredericton we received a firehose of information on competitive intelligence and then had about 10 minutes to digest and reflect before being asked to comment. Luckily, I had already done some work in the field of web-based competitive intelligence, thanks to Conor Vibert at Acadia University, so the concepts weren’t new. I had also spent a short period as a combat intelligence officer many years ago. With the limited time available, we did not discuss how you could integrate competitive intelligence gathering techniques into your daily work flow.

If this is one of the first times that you’ve come to this site, perhaps as a result of the CSTD conference, here are some of the tools that I use for competitive intelligence. If you look at the left Navigation Bar you will see a section marked "External Info Sites". The first one is my account at Bloglines. Bloglines is a web feed reader (also called an aggregator). It allows me to view any site via a "feed" seen within the bloglines window without having to go to the actual site. If you follow the link you will see what web sites I read. Advantages of feed readers are that you can see what has changed since the last time you looked at a site, and you can preview a post without having to go to the site. This saves a lot of time and allows you to quickly scan many sources. I usually have ~100 feeds that I monitor. There are other feed readers available, such as Newsgator, but Bloglines is perhaps the simplest. If you want to know if a site has a feed then install the Firefox browser and a small orange icon in the bottom right corner will alert you.

A description of how feeds work, with a technology called RSS, is available here. I know this URL because it is saved in my Furl account. I have made this account public as well, so that I can share websites of interest that I don’t mention directly in this blog. Furl also saves a copy of the page for me so that I get to view it even if the site is taken down. Think of Furl as a replacement for "Favourites" or "Bookmarks" in your browser, with these additional advantages:

  • you can use multiple categories for an individual post;
  • it saves a copy for your private viewing;
  • you can access your account from any computer;
  • it can be publicly viewable for sharing; and
  • your Furl archive is fully searchable.

If you are interested in blogging then you might want to start by Furling because it’s easier and simpler. A similar tool is Del.icio.us.

Blogging is another intelligence method, by which you can post a nascent idea and see what kind of response you get. I’ve recently posted about the benefits of blogging for small businesses. The advantage in this case is that the post to which I’ve referred is within the database of my own website. I own this data but share it under a Creative Commons license that covers everything on this site.

I hope that this is helpful for those new to blogging and the two-way web.

The Rules

Albert Ip has some positive words to say about Bill Gates, especially his views on education, and provides these rules, attributed to Bill:


RULE 1
Life is not fair – get used to it.


RULE 2
The world won’t care about your self-esteem. The world will expect you to accomplish something BEFORE you feel good about yourself.


RULE 3
You will NOT make 40 thousand dollars a year right out of high school. You won’t be a vice president with car phone, until you earn both.

RULE 4
If you think your teacher is tough, wait till you get a boss. He doesn’t have tenure.

RULE 5
Flipping burgers is not beneath your dignity. Your grandparents had a different word for burger flipping they called it Opportunity.


RULE 6
If you mess up,it’s not your parents’ fault, so don’t whine about your mistakes, learn from them.


RULE 7
Before you were born, your parents weren’t as boring as they are now. They got that way from paying your bills, cleaning your clothes and listening to you talk about how cool you are. So before you save the rain forest from the parasites of your parent’s generation, try delousing the closet in your own room.


RULE 8

Your school may have done away with winners and losers, but life has not. In some schools they have abolished failing grades and they’ll give you as many times as you want to get the right answer. This doesn’t bear the slightest resemblance to ANYTHING in real life.


RULE 9
Life is not divided into semesters. You don’t get summers off and very few employers are interested in helping you find yourself. Do that on your own time.

RULE 10
Television is NOT real life. In real life people actually have to leave the coffee shop and go to jobs.


RULE 11
Be nice to nerds. Chances are you’ll end up working for one.

Not bad advice.

Blogs – Essential Tools for Small Business?

According to an HP Report, more small businesses are including blogs in their business marketing plans. This link, through Small Business Trends (which includes some additional charts), explains what has been fairly obvious to me. Small businesses cannot afford pricey marketing campaigns, and blogs allow them to have direct conversations with their customers. For those offering services to small businesses, Anita Campbell suggests:

Web design firms need to incorporate weblogs into their offerings. Partnering with blog consultants could be a good marriage, since blogging is such a different animal from a typical business website. Let the blog consultants worry about the unique marketing aspect of blogs and training clients how to use them. The design firms can focus on what they do best: customizing the designs, actually building the blogs, and integrating them with businesses’ commercial websites.

As a small business, I have my own reasons for blogging.

Ladies & Gentlemen, the Advertisers have left the room

Last year I thought that the new medium (AKA Web 2.0) was in the processs of making marketing and advertising obsolete, stating that, Amazon is proving that marketing ain’t what it used to be, and the new Medium has obsolesced the darlings of the broadcast model – marketing & advertising. I also saw indications of open source marketing. Perhaps I was a bit off about marketing (for now), but this recent event, sponsored by Absolut is a good indicator of the obsolescence of advertising:

The only thing missing was the one element that has been present for the launch of a major spirits brands since marketing was invented. Last week, Absolut made marketing history when it launched without a cent being spent on traditional advertising.

The drink company opted instead to lease its own bar, brand it and stage a major photography exhibition there.

Absolut’s strategy flies in the face of marketing convention; an average of $3 million is spent on advertising to launch a brand.

Hang on to your hats [and business models] folks, because there is a lot more of this in store.

 

Analysis not required for traditional media

Having just discovered Michel Dumais, the author of the article comparing open source vs proprietary software costs in Le Devoir, I now find out that he is leaving the newspaper. After working there for six years, Dumais decided to leave when he was told to return to traditional technology reporting and basically “dumb-down” his articles on open source software and the impact of technology on society. He mentions being asked to focus on the hard facts of technology, and to minimize his analysis. This editorial request followed directly on Dumais’ piece about the GRICS learning portal software that I mentioned this week.

However, Dumais (also a blogger), sees all of this in a positive light, and gives his readers these parting words:

Soyez zen et gardez plutot vos énergies – continuer d’encourager l’appropriation du libre dans tous les domaines de la socièté civile, lorsqu’il est le meilleur outil disponible. Et à  surveiller de près le nid de frelons.

my translation: Be Zen-like and keep your energy to continue to support the use of open source in all sectors of civil society, wherever it is the best tool available. And keep a close eye on the hornets nest.

Merci Jacques.

Seeing What’s Next

I had previously written about Clayton Christensen, author of The Innovator’s Dilemma and The Innovator’s Solution, and more recently Seeing What’s Next. This last book gives new business entrants (upstarts) and incumbents a theory-based set of tools to understand and use disruptive innovations. One of the strategies for upstarts is to target non-core customers of the incumbents. These come in three categories (overshot, undershot and non-customers) and by targeting these customers entrants can avoid direct confrontation, while developing skills and expertise in areas outside the core business of the incumbents. Once the entrants have grown “under the radar”, they can grow to directly confront the incumbents.

Roger Kaufman has reviewed the book from the perspective of a human performance technologist (HPT) in April’s Performance Quarterly. Kaufman states:

This book, which is not written by HPT professionals, brings powerful illustrative value to our field. I highly recommend it, as it will stimulate your thoughts – and likely your actions. Seeing What’s Next is about one way for organizations and individuals to cope with the future.

I have been stimulated to take some of this book’s ideas and create the following graphical representation of how an upstart company should look at the “Signals of Change”, especially from non-market conditions. Upstarts should use their asymmetrical sword & shield and focus on non-consumers and overshot customers, such as those paying too much for what they really need (think bloated word processing applications where customers use only 20% of the features). By avoiding the cash cows (Undershot Customers) of the incumbents, upstart companies can develop asymmetrical skills in new fields before the incumbents know what hits them (think Voice over IP and traditional telcos).

SignalsChange.png

Blogging for dollars

Joe Dysart has written an article for Sales Promotion Magazine on blogging for the average business. He interviewed me a while back and has compiled an easy-to-read, non-technical overview of blogging for business. An example:

So how do you get a blog up and running? For starters, you may want to check out Blogger.com, a free hosting site where you can set up a pilot blog for your organization in a matter of minutes. The primary advantage of using a system like this is that all the technical details are handled by the site – although you’ll need to put up with Blogger.com’s self-promotional ads if you want the service for free.

After piloting a blog, and if you’ve gotten positive feedback from your experimental site, you may want to buy your own blog publishing software, and bring your blog in-house. Moveable Type is cited by many in-house bloggers as their package of choice, but there are others available on the market. Before you buy, you’ll probably want to check out Blog Software Breakdown, which offers an exhaustive feature-by-feature review of virtually every major blog publishing software package currently on the market.

Even after you think you’ve worked the kinks out of your pilot blog, experienced bloggers advise you to open your doors to the world-at-large without a lot of fanfare. Better to make your mistakes before a few helpfully sympathetic friends, say experts, than fall on your face before the cruel, cruel world.

Three blogs are covered in the article – mine, a real estate blog and one for an executive coach. This is a good reference piece for the uninitiated, and there are lots of those, in spite of Technorati’s tracking of +8 million blogs.

Change comes slowly

Yesterday we finished a strategic planning exercise at Mancomm and we had to decide what to do next. As the only New Brunswicker with this Montreal-based company, I’m usually far from the head office. I mentioned that we should put the strategic plan on our intranet as a wiki, so that we could continue to refine it. This seemed very natural to our group and the consensus was to publish the plan as a wiki..

On the other hand, I’m involved in a number of other initiatives where I receive dozens of emails per day, most of them prefaced by "Re:Fwd:Re:Fwd" etc. We all complain about email overload, but most of us still revert to the old patterns of ten years ago – just send an email.

I know that we don’t like to change and that many of us like our familiar patterns, but with technology changing like crazy we should all be trying at least one new business productivity technology every year. If not, we’ll look like those dinosaurs in the MS commercials that are popping up all over the place. So if you haven’t tried blogs, wikis, feedreaders, iPods, or whatever else, then get off your comfortable bottoms and try something new. You have nothing to lose but your antediluvian chains.

Virtual Work

Over lunch today, we discussed the trials and tribulations of work and the different challenges faced by salaried employees and independent virtual workers. Being a virtual worker or virtual student can be quite lonely whereas the opposite may be true as a face-to-face, salaried worker. The latter has no choice in who he or she may have to face with day-to-day regularity. Good bosses are wonderful, but their opposite can lead you down a slow path to depression.

All of this talk reminded me of the joys of working for yourself, much of which is as part of a virtual team. I had recently come across these rules for virtual web design work from The Useful Arts which I’ve summarized:

Stick to small groups, and
if you’re the leader, give up control, because
there is no leader, so
have complete trust, and
allow for total transparency, but
provide clear & achievable goals, while also having
an open ended final goal.

These are good rules, because virtual work requires a lot of trust, intuition and initiative. I disagree with the last part, because I think that there should be a final goal, so that at some point the project can be considered over and everyone can get paid. This way, everyone will want to work together again.