Technology

When I started this blog six years ago I knew that I would be “giving away” my thoughts for free. Some might say that’s all they’re worth. I’ve also kept the site ad free for a couple of reasons – ads don’t pay much, they get in the way of readers and I want people to focus on the conversations here or just get the information they need. No ads sets me apart from many other sites, so that’s a good thing in the long run. I make my money mainly by consulting and less from speaking and writing. Externally, this blog is one big business card. Internally, it’s my knowledge base that informs my work. In addition, it’s a way to communicate with my peers.

I would like to be paid for my writing on this blog but the economics of that are not really possible. On the internet, information wants to be free. That can be a good thing. Free has let me become much better known than I was seven years ago when I started this business. As Seth Godin says, on the internet, piracy is not your problem, obscurity is. The internet is changing a lot of business models. I’m interested in business models, especially since I’ve been personally affected by several failed ones.

Janet Clarey talks about the changes that have happened to her work as a researcher/analyst:

Now, I seem to work with hundreds [of people] and that brings me to a conflict I’ve had for the better part of a year: sharing. I share what I can and have taken some criticism for not making all knowledge available for free. Some seem to think that’s the way everything should be. Free. But research is our product. You might sell insurance. I’m not going to ask you for free insurance. So I’ve reconciled that in my mind. If anyone wants more than free, I’d be happy to be your analyst : )

I would surmise that ten years ago it was easier to sell a research report than it is now. There was less information available online for free. However, I think there is still a growing market for mass customization. That means a customized research report for me that’s different than one for somebody else. That’s pretty well what I sell: customized strategy & analysis for the specific context of each client. The challenge for Janet (and all of us in the custom information business) is figuring out the 90% that we should give away for free and the 10% that has market value and that we can charge for. The problem is that this sweet spot keeps changing so we need to keep tweaking and reinventing our business models. This is like determining what degree of centralization works best for market and technology conditions.

Everybody’s making predictions at this time of year, but I want to look back a bit. In 2004 Seth Godin made these predictions (and others) for 2009, and asked, and what then?

1. Hard drive space is free
2. Wifi like connections are everywhere
3. Everyone has a digital camera & everyone carries a device that is sort of like a laptop, but cheap and tiny
4. The retirement age will be five years higher than it is now
5. Your current profession will either be gone or totally different

Given all those future predictions we read each year, it’s good to see that someone got it right.

In 2007 I examined these predictions from the perspective of business planning and made these recommendations:

1. Don’t try to build another #$%* portal, because people have lots of places to put their stuff and they are getting information from a whole bunch of sources. Think small pieces, loosely joined.
2. Anywhere can be a hotspot so adding wi-fi just might get some interesting people to gather around you and that’s what’s really important.
3. All of those digital pictures are looking for a place to be shared. They might even improve your organisation’s learning about itself and its environment.
4. Remember those folks that you thought would leave with all their knowledge? Well, they’re not leaving, or they’re probably interested in a new relationship, so get them while you can.
5. Job? What’s a job?

In early 2010 it is pretty obvious that nobody needs an other Web portal. Even the project for the Pan-Canadian Online Learning Portal that I was working on in 2006 was finally canceled. Wireless is becoming ubiquitous though it’s still too expensive in too many places. Of course, almost everybody has a digital camera, usually combined with a phone or other smart mobile device. So, would your business have made different decisions five years ago if these predictions were heeded?

I find the last two points most interesting today because we’re just starting to see their impact. The recession and financial crisis pushed many retirements back several years, if not decades. Mandatory retirement ages have been successfully challenged in courts in several countries. There is a real business opportunity in older adults who are not fully retired, still have money and have time. It’s also becoming evident that new jobs are being created just as older ones are obsolesced.

How’s your business model for the next five years? Which predictions and trends are you following? Of course, I’m staying out of the prediction business ;-)

In Alvin & Heidi Toffler’s book, Revolutionary Wealth, they discuss the “clash of speeds” of our various societal structures, using a train analogy.

Speeding along at 100 mph is the enlightened business train; adapting and using new technologies (exploiting change).

Still fast at 90 mph is the civil society train; NGO’s, professional groups, activists, religious groups (demanding change).

Keeping up at 60 mph is the family train; working, shopping, trading & selling from home (adapting to change).

A distance back, at 30 mph is the union train, still focused on a mass-production mindset (denying change).

A bit further back at 25 mph is the large government bureaucracy train; slowing everybody else down (fighting change).

Limping along at 10 mph is the education train; protected by monopoly, bureaucracy & unions (blind to change).

Way back is at 5 mph is the international agency train: comprising organizations like WIPO, WTO, IMF (immune to change).

Even slower, at 3 mph is the political system train; discussing, debating but not accomplishing much (too busy to change).

Pulling up the rear at 1 mph is the legal train; so far behind that it hasn’t noticed the beginning of the financial bubble, let alone its collapse (rigor mortis).[can the law keep up with technology?]

Reflecting on the organizations I have worked in and worked with, I think these speed comparisons make a lot sense. Given that certain businesses can change so much quicker than education, it’s obvious that educational reform will come from without, not within, the system.

When we significantly change how we work, our education systems should follow suit, but due to its design constraints, the Edu-train cannot keep up with the Ent 2.0 train. Perhaps the only option for the passengers is to get off and find another train.